Friday, January 30, 2009

Stimulate this

So Congress is set to throw another $900 billion into the crapper on a stimulus package.

I'd like to spend the next few paragraphs explaining how this stimulus, designed to help Americans, is actually going to have a negative impact.

The stimulus, while containing some details, has one really significant piece of data that shows up - any company taking funds from the stimulus and/or tarp will be required to utilize products and services from American companies. This is being done as a way to create jobs.

Here's where I'm going to get in trouble, especially living in the rust belt.

It's going to KILL the economy rather than stimulate the economy. Here's why.

If a company, let's say Caterpillar, decides to take stimulus funds they are now immediately handcuffed to American suppliers, regardless of price. As a result, and through a really miserable few quarters, the American suppliers will not be required to go through competitive bidding to ensure they are a low-cost provider and high quality provider. This will result in higher priced materials going to Caterpillar.

Now Caterpillar, while certainly concerned about consumers, has also suffered in the past few quarters. Do you think that they will actually swallow the added costs associated with dealing with only a few suppliers? Yeah right. That cost will be passed on to the consumer through higher prices. (this is what we economists and finance folks call "Inflation.")

Given our current unemployment levels of about 7.5%, most real folks would have a hard time swallowing higher prices; especially since they, or someone they know, are probably unemployed.

Now, let's bring in the REALLY big issue with this stimulus. How would you feel if America did this and you were, oh, I don't know, China? Remember that little country that is home to nearly a third of the world's population? Oh yeah. By the way. The own a lot of our debt.

The Chinese Government probably wouldn't take too kindly to not being able to bid on American projects. And while I'm sure they'd like to play nicely together, maybe they'd decide that they would stop accepting bids from American companies. This is not a good scenario, but it is highly likely.

Also likely is the fact that they could literally deflate our currency by 25-40% overnight by simply selling the debt we owe them back into the market. This would create "hyper inflation," which is as scary as it sounds. Think "inflation on steroids" and you'll see my point.

Imagine walking into your grocery store today and paying $1 for a loaf of bread. Three days from now that same bread might cost $1.35. Next week it could be $1.60.

Finally, a good rule of thumb with regard to printing money and giving it away (that's what we're doing) is this: $1 trillion of new debt equals about $3000 per person additionally owed to pay back the national debt. We're currently paying over $1 billion per day in interest on this debt. Guess who gets to pay that? My kids. The cost to a family of four is about $126,000

Leave them alone. They are currently on the hook for about $33,000 (each) toward the debt.

Can't we show SOME responsibility and begin taking control of our financial lives? You CANNOT create consumer demand and solve financial issues by creating additional debt. For crying out loud, that's what got us into this mess in the first place!!!

If this makes you as angry as it makes me, check out the Adam Smith Institute blogsite to learn more about taking control of government finances.

And call your congressional representatives. Don't write them. Call them and wait to talk to a live voice. Tell them enough is enough and to stop spending your kids money.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Chris

As I predicted at the class reunion, the same people that got the first half of the TARP money (BAC, C) will be getting the second half as well. If you think about it, does PNC/NCC, JPM or WFC have better accounts or just smarter than the rest of the bankers? I guess neither. They very well may suffer the same fate, meaning a government bail out. Bottom line is if you are a shareholder does the government put you in front of the taxpayer? Not likely!! The market has already spoken on BAC/C and they are saying that the end is nationalization for those two. The answer is not fiscal policy but monetary policy. Where is Milton Freidman when you need him....